The long-term growth of the lab-grown diamond market lies in fashion jewelry and industrial applications, one industry analyst said in a forecast released last week.

New York-based diamond industry analyst Paul Zimnisky predicted lab-grown diamonds will constitute 12 percent of the diamond jewelry market by 2025, up from 8 percent in 2021 and 3 percent in 2018, when De Beers shook up the market with the introduction of Lightbox.

(These percentages represent lab-grown diamond value at retail as a percentage of the total polished diamond value at retail, i.e., lab-grown and natural.) 

As the market for man-made diamonds grows, however, it appears to be “stratifying,” Zimnisky said, with producers adopting more specific business strategies rather than focusing on “disrupting” the natural diamond industry.

Some producers are intent on creating branded diamonds grown using more sustainable methods to differentiate their product. 

Others are making diamonds for low-cost fashion jewelry, while some producers have turned their attention to growing diamonds for industrial purposes.

In the long term, the growth of the market is likely to come from this lower-cost fashion diamond jewelry—not from bridal—as well as from diamonds grown for industrial purposes, such as medical equipment, energy storage, or semiconductors.