The luxury market could grow by up to 8% this year as the industry is well positioned to weather difficult economic conditions, Bain & Company said.

“Even with a possible global recession [in 2023], the impact on the industry could be different from that of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis,” the consultancy firm forecast in a mid-November report. “The luxury market now appears better equipped to cope with economic turbulence, with its consumer base both larger and more concentrated.”

The industry’s more customer-centric, “multi-touchpoint” approach will likely provide resilience, according to the report, which Bain published in cooperation with Italian luxury-industry association Altagamma.

The report laid out two possible scenarios for the coming year. According to the more cautious one, sales of personal luxury goods will grow between 3% and 5% at constant exchange rates. In a more optimistic scenario, revenues will increase by 6% to 8%. The performance will depend on the strength of China’s economic recovery following 2022’s Covid-19 disruptions and the US and Europe’s ability to withstand economic headwinds, it explained.

Global luxury sales jumped approximately 21% to EUR 1.4 trillion ($1.5 trillion) in 2022, Bain projected in the report, which it finalized before the recent holiday season. Sales of personal luxury goods rose 22% to EUR 353 billion ($378 billion), it estimated.

“The nouvelle vague — the new wave — of the luxury-goods market will demand evolution amid disruption, adaptation amid uncertainty, and an expansion of creativity in all of the basics — all while new trends and concepts develop,” said Bain partner Claudia D’Arpizio, the study’s lead author.