Over the past three years, the pandemic has thrown countless curveballs at the diamond industry. While the basic tenets of supply and demand will always drive pricing trends, here are the predictions for the diamond industry in 2023.

Prices will dip to start the year, then stabilize. 

Last year ended with diamond prices in a slump, and the first quarter of 2023 will continue downward. This will present a buying opportunity for those coping with stubbornly high inflation in other areas. This drop will decelerate as we draw closer to the middle of the year, giving buyers a narrow window in which to capitalize on more favorable prices for stones.

Lab-grown prices will continue to drop.

Producers of lab-grown diamonds have scaled up considerably in the last few years, resulting in a sharp increase in supply. Some of these entities—especially smaller players that took on considerable debt to enter the business—will consolidate or be absorbed by larger rivals. However, the upshot remains: More capacity for lab-grown diamonds means more production, which puts pressure on prices and margins.

For the retail jeweler, this presents a complex landscape to navigate. Using the valuation of natural diamonds as a benchmark to price lab-grown diamonds threatens to become a liability, as the two increasingly diverge.

Brace for a wild card.

Geopolitics always play a role in large and complex global supply chains. As 2023 commences, there will be unique circumstances that will have the potential to change how pricing trends unfold throughout the year.

The Western sanctions imposed upon Russia, amid the conflict in Ukraine, have disrupted the diamond industry’s supply of small diamonds. With Russia’s absence in the industry, Botswana is expanding its capability for activities such as cutting and polishing. This push downstream could become more influential as the global diamond supply chain rearranges itself.

China’s recent return to its “zero-COVID” policies has the potential to be hugely disruptive to that country’s economic activity. Similar to how it observed this policy during its first two years of the pandemic, the Chinese consumer may be less willing or able to spend. In turn, this could extend the demand destruction we saw through the pandemic and its aftermath.

Ultimately, mounting macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures today create a highly fluid situation for the industry, one in which adaptable players will excel.

As one of the largest suppliers of diamonds in the world, RDI Diamonds is a global authority on wholesale diamond pricing. Customers benefit from our long history in the industry and the collective expertise of our knowledgeable team. When you buy diamonds from RDI Diamonds, rest assured that you are paying the most competitive prices with a multitude of value-added benefits. Every purchase is backed by the original and most flexible lifetime trade-up policy, not to mention free overnight shipping on all orders. To see the unparalleled variety of more than 8,000 loose diamonds on hand—now with an expanded GIA inventory to offer more price points.