U.S. trade policies under President Donald Trump disrupted the global economy by igniting trade wars with multiple countries. It began with the U.S. imposing higher import tariffs on various goods from Canada and China. In response, both Canada and China retaliated by raising import tariffs on numerous U.S. products as well.

The expansion of import tariff hikes has extended to several countries, particularly those with a trade surplus with the U.S. Most recently, on Monday, March 24, 2025, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that on April 2, 2025, the U.S. will implement new import tariffs on the 15 countries with the highest trade surplus against the U.S., referred to as the "Dirty 15." Thailand ranks 10th on this list. The countries with a trade surplus with the U.S. include:

ที่มา: The United States Trade Representative: USTR

The new import tariff announcement on April 2, 2025, is expected to cover almost all goods imported into the U.S., including gems and jewelry. However, the exact tariff rates to be imposed are still under discussion.

According to Global Trade Atlas data for 2024, the key gem and jewelry imports of the United States are as follows:

In the initial phase, the U.S. is expected to impose higher tariffs first on the top five countries with the largest trade surpluses: China, the European Union, Mexico, Vietnam, and Taiwan. When examining gem and jewelry exports to the U.S., China stands out as a key supplier and a major competitor to Thailand. If China faces higher import tariffs, the prices of jewelry, raw materials, and gemstones produced in China will rise. This will impact retailers and brands that heavily rely on Chinese suppliers, as the increased costs will likely be passed on to consumers.

U.S. brands may start seeking alternative manufacturing bases to avoid rising costs. Thailand, known for its expertise in gemstone cutting and high-quality jewelry production, presents an attractive option. Thai manufacturers have the capability to produce premium jewelry at competitive prices and are well-prepared to meet the demands of U.S. brands. This allows U.S. brands to maintain their quality standards while also avoiding import tariffs.

Source: https://www.outlookbusiness.com/

        However, if the U.S. imposes import tariffs on gemstones and jewelry from all 15 countries at once, both China and India, which are competitors to Thailand in this market, will also be taxed. This would level the playing field, so no one would have a distinct advantage over Thailand. That said, the increase in tariffs will raise the prices of gemstones and jewelry entering the U.S. As a result, U.S. importers may reduce orders from these three countries and turn to nations not subject to the tariff hikes. For colored gemstones, the U.S. may increase imports from countries like Sri Lanka, Brazil, and nations in Africa.

        In addition, the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. economic situation due to Trump’s trade policies is expected to lead to an economic slowdown in the U.S., which could impact consumer confidence. Coupled with the increased cost of imported goods due to higher tariffs, consumers may become more cautious in their spending and reduce their purchases of luxury items, such as gemstones and jewelry. As a result, Thailand’s exports of gemstones and jewelry to the U.S.—one of Thailand’s main markets—are likely to decline inevitably.

        Therefore, Thai entrepreneurs should closely monitor the U.S. announcement on import tariffs, as it could impact the export of Thai gemstones and jewelry to the U.S. At the same time, the Thai government should expedite negotiations with the U.S. to minimize the potential negative effects as quickly as possible, ensuring that Thailand’s exports do not slow down significantly.

Written by Ms. Wasana Somnate

Gem and Jewelry Institute of Thailand (Public Organization)

March 2025