The US diamond trade has a predictable summer rhythm. Business slows in early July as dealers head off for Independence Day, then picks up again in the final week of the month as they return to fill clients’ preholiday orders. This year followed that same script. But this time, the usual seasonal lull played out against a messy backdrop.

On July 23, the US confirmed it would keep import duties on Indian goods at 10% – lower than the 12.5% rate the trade had feared, and a fraction of the 50% tariff that applied between August 2025 and February 2026. Within days, Rapaport Trade figures showed diamonds moving from India to the US, concentrated in the ranges that matter most to the mid- and higher-end American consumer.

It would be easy to read this as straightforward holiday stocking, with a boost from tariff certainty and the end of summer. As this report explains, the reality is more tangled. At least four forces are pulling on retailers and wholesalers, and they don’t all point in the same direction.

The supply situation has changed as miners and manufacturers reduce output. Prices have started to recover in some of 2025’s weakest segments. Tariffs remain a source of hesitation. And demand itself is uneven, with retailers still cautious after several years of inventory losses.

This report uses exclusive Rapaport Trade data to map how these forces have played out since April, breaking down the movement by carat weight, color and clarity. It also examines what dealers and retailers on the ground are seeing category by category.

As always, the Rapaport Diamond Price Analysis section includes exclusive data on 0.30-, 0.50-, 1- and 3-carat diamonds, covering pricing, discounts, inventory by country, search volume and turnover time. This month, we look deeper into the recovery in 0.30- and 0.50-carat sizes, assessing whether this was the result of supply cuts, demand, or both. We also observe a divergence in how these sizes are behaving.

On that note, subscribers will have noticed some changes to the Rapaport Intelligence Report in recent months. It’s now more data-driven, using proprietary Rapaport knowledge to capture the market situation across a range of sizes and qualities. We plan to accelerate this progression over the coming months.

The question the industry is asking is whether this year’s cautious improvement will continue as the crucial holiday season approaches.