The US economy is not expected to return to pre-pandemic levels until at least the latter end of the year, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF).

“As we closed out 2020, it was an end to a whirlwind year whose challenging economic environment will almost certainly continue in 2021,” NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz said Monday. “The coming year might be just as eventful as the economic recovery faces many uncertainties. Recoveries do not proceed in a straight line and the prospects for volatility over the next few months are high.”

However, despite the uncertainty, the NRF believes retail will see a boost from the new round of stimulus checks issued by the US government. The additional money will help keep the holiday momentum going, Kleinhenz noted.

On December 27, the US government signed a bill that will provide one-time checks of $600 to individuals who earn up to $75,000 a year, and $300 weekly payments for the unemployed, for almost three months.

The NRF predicted sales for the recent November-to-December holiday period would increase by 3.6% to 5.2%. The organization will provide final results for the season on January 15. Employment rates in the US are unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels until well into 2022, or even 2023, NRF added.